PSAT to SAT: what your PSAT score predicts, and what it does not
PSAT scores come back in November, and the question I get in the same week every year is some version of so is that what they would get on the SAT? The answer is yes, roughly, for an SAT taken in October. It says much less about the one they will actually take.
The scale is the same, and stops early
The PSAT/NMSQT is scored from 320 to 1520, in two sections from 160 to 760. The SAT runs 400 to 1600. The two are built to line up: a 1200 on the PSAT means the same thing as a 1200 on the SAT, taken the same day, by the same student. College Board designs it that way on purpose, and it is why the PSAT is a useful first data point rather than a separate test to interpret.
The catch is the ceiling. The PSAT stops at 1520 because it does not contain the hardest questions on the SAT. For most students that does not matter. For a student scoring 1400 and above it matters a lot: the PSAT cannot tell a 1450 student from a 1560 one, because the questions that separate them were not on it. If your child is up there, the PSAT told you they are up there, and nothing more precise than that. A full SAT practice test is the only way to see the top of the range.
Does a PSAT score predict your SAT score?
Yes, for an SAT taken the same month. No, for the one your child will actually take in the spring, because the months between are when the score moves.
Taken in October of junior year, the PSAT is a fair estimate of the SAT your child would have got that month. It is not an estimate of the SAT in March or May, because the months between are exactly when the score moves, partly from another half year of math and reading, and partly from preparation if there is any.
So the number to write down is the baseline, not the forecast. Treat the PSAT score as where we are starting. Anything above it on the real test is earned; a real test below it is a signal something went wrong on the day or in the plan.
What is the National Merit cutoff?
Commended is 208 for the class of 2027. State Semifinalist cutoffs run from about 210 to 224 and are announced each September.
The PSAT/NMSQT is also the qualifying test for National Merit, which works off a Selection Index rather than the total score: twice the Reading and Writing section score plus the Math section score, each divided by ten, for a range of 48 to 228. A 720 Reading and Writing with a 700 Math is a 214.
The Commended level for the class of 2027 is 208 nationally. Semifinalist cutoffs are set state by state and are announced each September; this year’s confirmed ones so far run from 210 to 220, with the highest states expected near 224. The state tables are kept up to date by Compass Prep, and that is where to check rather than a number in a blog post that will be a year old soon.
Two things about that formula. Reading and Writing counts double, so a student with a lopsided math score has less room than the total suggests. And a cutoff in the high 210s is roughly a 1460 to 1480 on the PSAT scale, which is close to its ceiling, another reason the top of the PSAT range is not very informative about the SAT.
What the report is actually good for
Not the number. The breakdown. The PSAT report in Bluebook and My Practice shows every question, whether it was right, and what skill it tested, using the same skill labels as the SAT. That is the same information a practice test gives you, and it is free and already done.
The way to use it is the way I use any practice test: sort every question into four boxes rather than reading the misses in order. The one thing the PSAT report cannot give you is how long each question took, which is the number that separates knows it from knows it slowly. That has to be logged on a practice test, and it is the first thing we do.
The younger versions
The PSAT 10 is the same test given in spring of sophomore year and does not count for National Merit. The PSAT 8/9 is easier and scored on a shorter scale, 240 to 1440, so a PSAT 8/9 score does not line up with the SAT the way the NMSQT does. Do not read a freshman’s 1200 as a future SAT 1200.
What to do with the score in November
Nothing dramatic. Note it as the baseline. Look at the breakdown for the pattern, not the individual questions. Then decide the test date and work backward from it. The PSAT’s real value is that it makes that conversation happen in November rather than in April, when the answer to when should we start is usually earlier.